July 13, 2020

Leaving Airplane Middle Seats Empty Could Cut Virus Risk in Half

1 A new research paper from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology — that, we should note, has NOT been peer-reviewed — estimates that blocking out middle seats aboard commercial aircraft could reduce the likelihood of catching the virus by 50%.

According to the paper, the chances of catching coronavirus from a nearby passenger on a full airplane when all coach seats are filled is about 1 in 4,300, or roughly the same as a gold level elite having an upgrade clear on a Monday morning.

However, those odds drop to 1 in 7,700 when all the middle seats on board are left empty, or roughly the same as a silver level elite having an upgrade clear on a Monday morning.

Southwest, Delta, and Alaska are the three U.S. airlines currently blocking middle seats through September. JetBlue announced over the weekend it would continue to block middle seats, extending its policy through September 8.


Hawai’i Pumps the Brakes on Tourism Reopening

2 After announcing last month that it would open to visitors as soon as August 1 — provided each visitor could provide proof of a negative COVID test — Hawai’i Governor David Ige says he will delay the reopening at least 31 days.

The Governor extended the mandatory 14-day quarantine for visitors today as the state works to ensure that its testing program is fully-operational. This decision comes after the mayors of all four counties in the state asked the governor to hold off on reopening Hawai’i to tourists.

The surge of cases on the mainland and the shortage of tests on the islands has forced the Governor to delay the opening, outweighing the potential economic benefit. The Honolulu City Council voted unanimously on Wednesday for the Governor to delay the opening as no one felt it was prepared to safely welcome visitors back on August 1.


British Airways & Its Pilots Said to Agree on Deal

3 BALPA — the British Airways pilots union — has reportedly agreed to a deal with the airline that is now going out to its members for a vote with a recommendation that they accept.

The deal reduces the number of pilots BA will furlough to as few as 200 instead of the 1,255 it had previously planned. In exchange for saving approximately 1,000 jobs, BA pilots will have to:

  • Accept an 8% pay cut, effective in September.
  • Accept an additional 8% pay cut (for a total of 16%) that will be paid into an account that will pay some of the pilots who are furloughed.
  • The additional pay cut will last no later than September 2022 and will be reduced as demand returns and pilots are hired back.
  • The 4% pay raise due pilots in April has been deferred until January 2024.
  • Take two weeks of unpaid leave by April.

The deal seems to work for both sides, but it is a departure from normal procedures where the top pilots don’t want to cut their salaries to save the junior ones. Good on them for making a decision to support the greater good. BA pilots will take a major hit in salary, but in doing so will save their colleagues jobs as well as helping pay salaries for those who lose theirs. And the airline is able to keep pilots on reserve for when flying does return to pre-pandemic levels. Tea & crumpets for everyone!


Delta & LATAM Codeshare Agreement Approved by DOT

4 In a summer where nothing has gone right for Delta or LATAM, finally some good news. The DOT approved the airlines’ request to codeshare on flights between the United States and Chile. The request was approved on the condition that the two airlines give the DOT 30 days notice on the launch of any codeshare routes. In an unconventional move, it’s rumored that DOT has specifically required the codeshare go into place first on routes operated by American, because “man, do we hate those guys.”

With the codeshare agreement taken care of, Delta & LATAM are now moving onto the next part of their tie up, as the two airlines have now requested that the DOT approve antitrust immunity for their joint venture. That is always the tougher sell.

Delta and LATAM admitted that they were applying for the JV at an “extraordinary time” given the COVID-19 pandemic has had “a devastating economic impact on the airline industry.” LATAM and four of its affiliates filed for bankruptcy in the Spring with its Brazilian unit joining the party last week.


Norwegian Plans to Resume Long-Haul Flying in March of 2021

5 Norwegian has tentatively filed a schedule beginning March 28, 2021 that includes the restoration of long-haul service to the United States. The airline plans to fly from Paris/CDG to both New York/JFK and Los Angeles with 4x weekly service on its Boeing 789s.

The airline had suspended its long-haul operation in the Spring indefinitely. In an April 2020 presentation to investors, Norwegian stated that it would not return to the long-haul market any earlier than March 2021. It also said it would try to stop losing money. One out of two ain’t bad.


Airline Potpourri

  • airBaltic and Icelandair have signed a codeshare agreement to flow people over to the US via Keflavik.
  • Azores Airlines is resuming service to Boston, Toronto/Pearson, and Frankfurt.
  • Cathay Pacific shareholders approved a $5 billion bailout to keep the airline flying.
  • KLM‘s €3.4 billion bailout from the Dutch government was approved by the EU.
  • La Compagnie is suspending its tiny operation until September.
  • Lufthansa Cargo is cutting 500 jobs amid group restructuring.
  • Mesa Air signed a five-year cargo agreement to fly two 737-400F aircraft for DHL Express.
  • Middle East Airlines received delivery of its first Airbus A321neo.
  • United is reopening its pilot base at Los Angeles later in the year as adds a route from LAX to Sydney.
  • Virgin Atlantic is planning to announce a $1 billion rescue deal, and we are planning on reporting it when it happens.

David’s Moment of Levity

With so many sporting events cancelled they’re going to televise the World Origami Championship.   It’s on Paperview.