Author: Brett Snyder

United System Hiccups Lead to Minor Operational Disruption

United experienced a “technical system issue” this morning which caused problems for the airline for about an hour before everything came back online.

Though the details of the problem weren’t clear, it was reported by various news outlets to have impacted the website, app, and the operation. Just before 7am ET, United asked the FAA to implement a ground stop — meaning flights were held in place — until it could find which machine was unplugged and plug it back in. The ground stop was lifted about an hour later, and most of us on the West Coast slept right through it.

The glitch had a minimal impact on United’s operation. At last check, FlightAware showed United having canceled only 11 flights and delayed 186, or as Spirit calls it, the best day ever.

Senator Asks DOT To Bust Up American/JetBlue Alliance

The US Department of Transportation (DOT) approved the Northeast Alliance between American and JetBlue last year after coming to an agreement on concessions from the airlines, but now at least one senator wants DOT to change its mind.

Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) has written a letter to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with “grave concerns” about the alliance, saying it “will lead to anticompetitive coordination at key air traffic hubs and result in the long-term inflation of airfares and related costs for airline passengers.” The senator gives no actual argument as to why this will happen except for the one stat he throws out saying that the top four airlines control two-thirds of the domestic market.

American and JetBlue have raced ahead with new flights to try and head off this type of criticism. With bigger airplanes and more flights to a ton of places, including bustling hotspots like Tel Aviv, Athens, and Kansas City, the airlines are hoping that the competitive benefits outweigh any anti-competitive ones in the eyes of regulators.

What Sen. Blumenthal really wants is for DOT “to conduct a full public interest review and investigation.” Whether Sec. Buttigieg actually listens to him or treats him like most senators and ignores him remains to be seen.

American Officially Wages War on Jerks

In an update noticed by Zach Griff at TPG today, American has taken aim at the rising number of inflight incidents by adding “abusive” and “harassing” behavior as a reason to block travelers from flying “temporarily or permanently” in its domestic conditions of carriage. It is believed that this move is also meant to apply to senators who dare to challenge the airline’s plans.

This has already been enshrined in the international rules under Rule 25 – Refusal to Transport, where American says it can remove people from a flight if their “conduct is disorderly, abusive or violent.” The international rules have long been more explicit, even allowing the airline to remove travelers if they are barefoot or have an offensive odor, “such as from a draining wound.”

Rumor has it that American will now make Rule 25 available in its lounges and will hand a copy to all business class passengers to read. The idea is that the graphic language will reduce appetites dramatically, allowing the airline to lower costs on lounge food and board fewer meals on every flight.

• Aero — the super fancy, semi-private jet service — is going to start flying from Van Nuys (near LA) to Las Vegas. If you have to ask the price, it’s not for you… but it starts at $950 one way per person.
• Air New Zealand canceled all but a handful of quarantine flights to Australia through November now that New Zealand has announced it will keep the travel bubble with Australia closed until December at the earliest.
• Alaska‘s new top MVP Gold 100K elite status tier will come with extra bonus miles, priority upgrades, free snacks in coach, two long-haul upgrade certificates on American, and the right to tell the world that you fly way too much.
• Alaska will let people wearing jerseys from the new Seattle Kraken hockey team board early on Seattle and Paine Field flights through the hockey season. Those jerseys start at $119, so it’s probably not the best way to guarantee early boarding unless you have a few flights planned.
• Alitalia‘s brand will be sold at auction with a starting price of €290m, which is what the brand is worth only in the minds of blinded Italian politicians.
• Connect Airlines — the new airline looking to serve Canada from the US — has hit some major snags in its effort to get certified.
• DOT has given US airlines until the end of March to start their previously-authorized international routes before authority expires.
• Gol has refinanced more debt, pushing nearly all payments out into the future when it hopes to actually have more cash on hand.
• Guna Airlines in Nepal is gunna resume operations.
• LAX has the first centralized air cargo examination station. This single CBP facility will replace having agents go to 87 warehouses up to 11 miles from the port office to do inspections. So maybe those holiday packages won’t be as late as we’re being warned.
• London/Heathrow has released its summer 2022 operational limits. One arrival slot will shift from the 4pm hour to the 1pm hour and one departure slot will shift from the 9pm hour to the 8pm hour. Huge changes.
• Virgin Australia is finally going to let loyalty program members redeem points on partner airlines again.

Where did the United software developer go?!

I don’t know, he ransomware.

US Shows No Sign of Opening Borders Soon

The US government is not indicating any willingness to open US borders to visitors from currently-blocked countries anytime soon, blaming the Delta variant and saying that more Americans need to be vaccinated first. Despite that gloomy news, there is some progress in that the US is finally talking about what a reopening might look like whenever it happens.

Speaking to an advisory board, White House coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients says that the US is “exploring considering vaccination requirements for foreign nationals,” something that would be far better than the blanket ban that’s in place for any visitor who has been in Europe, China, Brazil, Iran, India, and South Africa in the last 14 days. There will also be a contact tracing program in place when those borders do open.

Europe has already broadly opened to vaccinated Americans, and despite a European Commission suggestion that countries should go back to requiring quarantines for Americans, very few have followed. The Netherlands was one of the most prominent countries to heed that advice, but it announced yesterday it would back down after only 2 weeks.

When asked why people from Mongolia are allowed into the US — the country with the highest case rate per 1,000 people in the world over the last 14 days — but not Poland which barely had any, Zients said he couldn’t hear the question, waved his hands, released a puff of smoke, and then disappeared.

Southwest Goes Big in Austin as It Extends Its Schedule Past Spring Break

Southwest has extended its schedule from ending just after the winter holidays to now going through April 24, 2022. There are a variety of changes in this schedule, most notably big growth in Austin.

Starting in March, Southwest will add nearly 40 nonstops per day in Austin compared to last March, including daily nonstop flights from Austin to Amarillo, Charleston (SC), Columbus, Midland/Odessa, and Ontario. It will also have weekend service to Destin/Fort Walton Beach, Panama City, and Sarasota. We understand the airline is also taking applications for new service from any other place in Florida that has a strip of land long enough to land a Boeing B737.

In other news, Southwest will add frequencies to Hawaiʻi next spring, all on existing routes. And in the biggest blockbuster of them all… Southwest will start flying once a day from Albuquerque to Burbank. We know this is the route you’ve been waiting for, and as of January 17, the wait will finally be over.

FAA to Dole Out 16 Slots to Low Cost Operators at Newark

When United and Continental merged, they were forced to divest 18 slot pairs at Newark, and Southwest took them. When Southwest left the airport, the FAA decided to retire 8 slot pairs during the peak afternoon hours so it could reduce congestion. Now, it is changing its mind.

Newark no longer has slots in the traditional sense, but it does require the airport to coordinate with airlines to reduce congestion to a certain number of operations over a given time period. Now, it will allow 8 more departures and 8 more arrivals in the peak afternoon after Spirit sued the FAA to redistribute the rights.

In its analysis, the FAA said this move would increase delays by about 1.2 minutes throughout the day, but it could dramatically reduce fares on routes where United currently has a monopoly. Thanks to President Biden’s executive order making the FAA look for ways to increase competition in congested airports, the FAA now says it’s worth the extra delays to get cheaper tickets.

These will be given to a single low-cost airline, if one can be found that meets the criteria. One of the requirements, “staying power,” forced Frontier to instantly withdraw. A need for airlines to have a “track record” of competing with hub carriers in highly competitive markets kicks out Allegiant, Avelo, and Breeze. Lastly, having “reasonably competitive onboard products and services and the ability to deliver them to customers consistently over time” means Spirit has quite an uphill battle ahead.

• Air Malta will resume flying to London, Madrid, and Moscow next year. This is an important signal that indicates Air Malta is actually still in business.
• Air New Zealand is partnering with Airbus to look into the feasibility of bringing hydrogen-powered aircraft into the fleet by the end of the decade.
• Emirates is back on a torrid growth pace, needing 3,000 flight attendants and 500 airport employees over the next 6 months alone.
• Eurowings — one of the strategically-confused low-cost arms of Lufthansa — is now going to add to its confusion by opening a base in Stockholm with 5 airplanes.
• Flyr says it’s learned lessons from Norwegian’s failings. A new technology platform and simple org structure will make Flyr efficient, and that gives the airline “time” to take care of employees and customrs. So time is what Spirit needs, got it.
• Japan Airlines is trying to limit food waste by letting passengers skip meals in exchange for a better amenity kit. It’s weird, because the better amenity kit includes a full meal inside.
• Ryanair is increasing its passenger growth target from 33% to 50% over the next five years. That would bring the airline up to over 225m passengers a year.
• South African says it needs newer airplanes for long-haul routes to work. It had newer airplanes, but it lost all those during the pandemic.
• Southwest will give an extra 16 hours of pay or 13 trip segments to employees if they show proof of vaccination by mid-November. The airline will also stop offering pay protection for unvaccinated people who get sick from COVID. This is presumably an effort to get people vaccinated before an eventual mandate goes into place.
• United — which is way ahead of Southwest in this area — says 90% of all employees are now fully-vaccinated, 11 days before its mandate goes into effect. In management ranks, that number is 95%. And in Florida, it’s 0%.
• Virgin Australia says all front-line employees must be vaccinated by November 15 while the rest of its staff has to be vaccinated by March 31, 2022.

American Convinces Gol to Go Steady By Buying an Expensive Ring

American Airlines has announced it will invest $200 million to take just over a 5% stake in Brazil-based Gol. The two airlines had already launched a previous partnership, bonding over both being spurned lovers when Delta and LATAM decided to partner with each other, but now American and Gol are ready to take the next step.

The new relationship will see the two airlines become exclusive. American can’t have another codeshare partner in Brazil, and Gol can’t have another in the US. It will also create an “enhanced joint loyalty offering” which basically means that elite benefits will be given across airlines, but there will also be more ways to earn and burn miles eventually. The two airlines will increase their commercial cooperation in other unstated ways as well.

Delta had purchased a 9% stake in Gol a decade ago which it promptly sold off in 2019 once it was able to snag LATAM as a partner. It is unknown whether American will go ahead and write-down its stake in Gol now or wait until it actually turns out to be worthless in the future.

Avelo Adds West Palm Beach, Increases Frequency From New Haven

It appears that Avelo Airlines is seeing success in New Haven before flights even begin. It has now added a fifth Florida destination — West Palm Beach — and frequencies will increase on other routes to ensure old people can all get to Florida before it gets too cold.

West Palm Beach service starts on December 16 and will operate daily through the holidays. From January 5, it will drop to 5x weekly. Fort Myers and Tampa will also rise to daily flights between December 16 through January 4. Initial New Haven service begins in November.

This increase is good news for Avelo, which has not seem the same fortunes at its initial Burbank base. The airline has dropped some destinations, including Monterey and St George before they even started. It has also reduced frequencies in other markets as it looks to fine a path forward. That path should probably be… take the airplanes and move them elsewhere.

SWISS Adds Clearance Rack to Late Flights

SWISS International Air Lines has found a creative way to reduce food waste from its aircraft. The airline has begun offering discounted food through a partnership with the “Too Good to Go” program before it goes bad.

The initial trial began in August and focuses on Geneva departures. All fresh food that goes unsold during the day on earlier flights will be boarded on the final flights of the day and sold at a third of the usual price so that they don’t have to be thrown away.

In order to avoid cannibalizing sales of the exact same fresh food on those flights, SWISS will only sell these as mystery bags where passengers get either 1, 2, or 3 items, but they won’t know what they are in advance of purchase.

SWISS says the initial trials are going well, but we understand that not everything has gone smoothly. The Toblerone bars and Swiss Rolls have been a hit, but those who end up with a bag full of fondue have reportedly been displeased.

• Air India‘s painfully-lengthy privatization is one step closer to happening.
• Austrian will add Montreal back to its route map on October 1.
• Delta is ditching pandemic back-to-front boarding and going back to tastefully color-coded boarding groups.
• Flybondi took delivery of its 4th aircraft, adding even more capacity which will greet Avianca Argentina if it actually comes back.
• Jet Airways says it is still on track to launch in early 2022 with leased narrowbodies. The first route will be between Delhi and Mumbai.
• KLM won’t require vaccines for crews, but it warns them that more and more countries are adding vaccine requirements, so the routes they can fly will continue to shrink unless they get the vaccine.
• LAM‘s purchase of two Embraer 190s came with $800,000 in bribes from Embraer, and now the country’s former transport minister and a middleman will spend 10 years in prison.
• The Netherlands has reversed its decision to require a quarantine for all inbound arrivals from the US a mere two weeks after announcing the rule. The flip flop goes into effect September 22.
• OWG is launching High Love flights from Montreal to Cabo with an open bar and passengers separated into sections for families, couples, and singles. What could go wrong?
• Thai AirAsia is looking to raise $2.5 million through crowdfunding. It is believed the Thai government likes this plan, because it has been trying to build a list of insane people and can now just use the list of investors.
• United has rolled out fresh food from Chicago-based Beatrix Market including a “chia seed pudding” for breakfast. We really hope this local trend doesn’t spread to Vegas-based Allegiant, because the all-you-can-eat seafood buffet would get pretty messy.
• WestJet CFO Harry Taylor will take on the interim President and CEO job until a permanent replacement is found.

What’s the best thing about living in Switzerland?

Well, the flag is a big plus.

Company That Sells Airplanes Predicts Huge Demand for Airplanes

Boeing today released its annual Boeing Market Outlook which had quite the sunny feel to it. The company says demand for all aerospace products in the next decade has risen from $8.5 trillion to $9 trillion.

In the commercial aircraft space specifically, Boeing says there will be demand for 19,000 airplanes globally worth $3.2 trillion — or $12.99 after Ryanair gets done negotiating the price.

Looking out 20 years, Boeing sees a need for over 43,000 airplanes. The breakdown has the incredibly specific number of 2,390 aircraft under 90 seats, 32,660 narrowbody aircraft over 90 seats, 7,670 widebody aircraft, and 890 freighters. Freighters are where Boeing sees big demand growth, but then again, that’s a pretty puny number anyway.

Boeing says that long-term demand for narrowbodies remains fairly constant to where it was before the pandemic, but that demand for widebodies is down 8% vs the pre-pandemic forecast. This revelation was immediately followed by cries of discrimination against plus-size airplanes.

Hong Kong’s Strict COVID Rules Force Air Canada to Make a Stop

Though Europe and Latin America have opened up to at least some North American travelers, Asia remains off-limits to most people, and Hong Kong is one of the most strict of all. It’s so strict that Air Canada has decided it will no longer fly nonstop from Canada to Hong Kong for the near future.

An Air Canada crew had been vaccinated and had tested negative before taking a cargo aircraft from Canada to Hong Kong. It’s a very long flight… long enough that one of the crewmembers tested positive upon arrival. Hong Kong has now required the crew remain under quarantine for 21 days which has no basis in medical reality. Consular officials are now negotiating to get the crew out, and a Hollywood studio has already optioned the film rights for Argo II: Straight Outta Hong Kong.

In the meantime, Air Canada has said all these cargo flights will stop in Incheon on their way to Hong Kong. Presumably this will allow Air Canada to put a fresh crew on the airplane in Incheon which can then fly roundtrip to Hong Kong without getting off the airplane, avoiding testing rules. This is already what the airline does for flights to mainland China, and is going to make commercial service very difficult until the rules change.

Sun Country Forces Minnesota on Unsuspecting Passengers

Most flights on hometown airline Sun Country touch Minnesota, and now the airline will be catering to the homers with new inflight entertainment and food and beverage options that may confuse or frighten unsuspecting non-Minnesotans.

Sun Country will begin serving Caribou Coffee — now the official coffee of Sun Country. Sun Country will actually be spending $250,000 to “ensure high flavor quality and consistency across its fleet.” In other words, the airline won’t use the blue water from the lav anymore. As part of the sponsorship, Sun Country will now have hot coffee available without charge for all passengers. You can thank Caribou for buying you a cup.

Fulton Brewing and Dot’s Pretzels will be available for purchase on any flight as well. Those who pay for extra legroom seats get a packet of pretzels for free. What a deal!

Sun Country will also begin offering 15 Minnesota-based tv programs and movies via inflight entertainment. The only titles mentioned specifically are Purple Rain, The Mighty Ducks, Grumpy Old Men, The Mary Tyler Moore Show, and Juno. We assume the 1970 classic Airport — which was mostly filmed at Minneapolis/St Paul — will not be on the list due to that whole “bomb exploding on airplane” thing.

• Air Canada is going to restart Sydney flights on December 17, a good sign that Australian borders may actually start to open up by the end of the year.
• Air New Zealand will not resume the Christchurch – Gold Coast, Auckland – Maroochydore, and Auckland – Cairns routes until March 26, 2022.
• American is bringing its inflight entertainment maintenance in-house, away from the system manufacturers. If your screen doesn’t work on your next flight, now you know who to blame.
• American today reopened its first Flagship Lounge since the pandemic began. JFK is now open with Miami following in two weeks.
• Avianca Argentina is looking to make a comeback. Why any airline would voluntarily start flying in that very difficult market is beyond us.
• China Eastern‘s first COMAC C919 — the first of the aircraft to be delivered to anyone — is entering final assembly. The A320-ripoff narrowbody aircraft will seat 158 to 168 passengers and is only likely to fly within China for the near future.
• FedEx is giving up its single slot at Long Beach Airport, opening the door for one lucky airline to pick up an extra flight.
• Hageland Aviation Services looks to be gone for good now that its new owner has moved on and couldn’t find a buyer for the Alaskan operator.
• Icelandair has requested permission to fly a weekly charter flight from Orlando to Havana for 13 weeks starting October 5. This information is nearly as useless as American bringing back hot nuts.
• LATAM Brasil will start flying Boeing B787s in December, replacing the Airbus A350s that are leaving the fleet.
• Ryanair has a new training center coming online in Dublin which will help the airline crank out 5,000 new pilot and flight attendant jobs in the next 5 years. That is the second largest number of new employees needed behind lawyers, who will be used to ramp up litigation efforts against everyone everywhere.
• Ukraine International will begin flying hordes of Ukrainians to Cancun, Punta Cana, and the Maldives on Boeing B777-300ER aircraft.

What do Minnesota Vikings fans do after they win the Super Bowl?

Shut off the Xbox and go to bed.

Southwest’s President “Steps Down”

Southwest Airlines President Tom Nealon is leaving the company effective immediately. In his place, current COO Mike Van de Ven will take on both the COO and President titles.

This is in no way a surprising move since Nealon was passed over to replace Gary Kelly as CEO. Bob Jordan will take on that role next February. Once that was announced, it was only a matter of time before Nealon left the company. But don’t worry about him. He will become a “strategic advisor” focusing on the environment, which sounds like he gets to just collect a nice paycheck for awhile without having to do much.

Van de Ven has been with Southwest for 28 years, and this would seem to be a large promotion for the man who has risen steadily through the ranks. Then again, this may very well just be a placeholder until Jordan steps into the CEO role when he may have his own preference for the job.

US Government Investigating Airline Refund Complaints

As part of his July executive order, President Biden had asked the government to investigate the problems many consumers had with airline refunds during the pandemic. The Department of Transportation listened, and it put out a progress report on Friday, which is always a great time to release news when you want people to read it… or not.

DOT provided some staggering numbers. In the five years before the pandemic, it received an average of 17,420 complaints per year with a little over 1,400 about refunds. In 2020, DOT received 102,561 complaints with more than 85,000 related to refunds.

Much of the release was just DOT tooting its own horn about all the work it has done. But despite this “work,” there are still 18 out of 20 investigations open, and there could be more punishment handed out beyond just the fine levied against Air Canada for telling the government — in the most polite way possible — that it had no interest in following US laws.

Additional rules surrounding refunds when government restrictions don’t allow travel, another that would increase transparency around ancillary fees, and finally one around how to properly pronounce Secretary Buttigieg’s name are said to be in progress.

Qantas and Japan Airlines Denied In Their Quest to Dominate the Japan – Australia Market

The Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) has handed down its ruling denying the enhanced cooperation between Qantas and Japan Airlines in the Australia – Japan market.

ACCC Chair Rod Sims did not mince words when he said, “The ACCC can only authorise an agreement between competitors if it is satisfied the public benefits would outweigh the harm to competition. The alliance did not pass this test.” Before the pandemic, the two airlines controlled 85% of the market between the two countries… which is a lot, for those keeping score at home.

After it became clear that this joint business was going down to defeat, Qantas tried to sweeten the pot by saying it would commit to flying from Cairns to Tokyo over time. The ACCC seemed unphased, noting that Jetstar is already planning to fly the route from February and that the route would happen even without the joint business. Nice try, Qantas.

• American is bringing hot nuts back to the premium cabin on some flights. If you can find a more useless bit of information, please let us know.
• American will, in slightly less useless news, begin selling access to its Flagship lounges for $150 per person per visit. If that sounds like a good deal to you, you probably have too much money to burn.
• Breeze has bumped its A220 orderbook up from 60 to 80 aircraft.
• Comair in South Africa has pulled in ~$19m both in money owed from South African Airways and by selling its lounge business.
• El Al is being offered another $50m in convertible bond purchases from the Israeli government if the current owner puts $43 of his own in, the airline sells some aircraft plus a large stake in its frequent flier program, and flight attendants start exclusively serving Manischewitz wines to all passengers.
• Eos is back! But this time it’s a completely unrelated float plane operator in Italy.
• FlyCoin is a new cryptocurrency rewards program for Ravn Alaska. We dare you to read this press release and find one concrete thing that makes any sense.
• Interjet — the Mexican airline that hasn’t flown in over a year — had its owner arrested on fraud charges. This is the second owner in a row to get in trouble with the law, putting the airline on par with Arizona governors from the late 1980s/early 1990s.
• SKY Express — a Greek airline that looks like it just took American’s tail and turned it 90 degrees — has signed an interline agreement with American, its first with a US-based carrier.
• Southwest will not resume alcohol sales until 2022 at the earliest. This is terrible news for everyone heading to the Florida Panhandle.
• Swoop has reached a tentative agreement with its flight attendants after 1.5 years of negotiations.
• Wizz Air appears to be closing in on an order for 100 new A320neo family aircraft.
• Yemenia — which, come to think of it, is probably harder to run than Ariana Afghan — is said to be restarting Airbus A330 operations.

Why did the company hire the Australian animal for the job?

He was best koala-fied for the post.

US to Require Vaccines for Most Airline Employees, Double Fines for Maskless Travelers

President Biden was busy yesterday announcing a slew of changes to vaccine and mask policies that will impact airline employees and passengers, assuming the inevitable legal challenges do not succeed.

The President announced that all US companies with more than 100 employees will be required to either mandate vaccines or have weekly testing for unvaccinated employees. That will impact every airline in the US except for all those fake startup airlines that are really just one person in a garage with a dream.

Further, companies that are government contractors will be required to mandate vaccines and will not have the testing option available. It’s unclear if airlines that have government fares are considered government contractors, but there are other agreements like those for transportation of prisoners or deportees that would certainly qualify. In other words, you can expect vaccine mandates to be required at many airlines if they want to stay on the feds’ gravy train.

On the passenger side, TSA is getting tough with mask mandate violators. Fines will now double for those who refuse to wear masks on airplanes to a range of $500 to $3,000 depending upon if it’s your first offense or not and if you needed to be handcuffed or if the zip-ties were enough.

ITA Gets the OK to Take Over for Alitalia

Those who are concerned about whether Alitalia will actually have a functioning replacement on October 15 — in other words, anyone with a flight booked – can breathe a little easier today. The European Commission has now ruled that ITA, which will start flying right after Alitalia shuts down, is actually a different airline from Alitalia.

Why do you care if it’s a different airline? Well, that determination was required in order for the new company to be able to avoid having to take on Alitalia’s crushing debts. It can now start as a new carrier free from all those shackles, and that means if you bought a ticket on the airline, it will probably, actually be valid for a flight, assuming there are no other snags to derail this plan.

The EC says that ITA can launch with some aircraft from Alitalia and some maintenance/ground handling functions brought over. It can also bid on the Alitalia brand at auction, but that’s about it.

We at Cranky will be taking donations to outbid ITA for the brand name so we can assign it to our new chain of fast casual Italian restaurants with its lovable mascot, Al Italia. We will also be looking to take over Alitalia’s MilleMiglia loyalty program — which ITA is prohibited from buying — so we can offer free breadsticks to our most important customers.

TSA Makes Seattle Checkpoint Reservation System Permanent

The TSA has seen such success with the SEA Spot Saver checkpoint reservation system that it has decided to make the program permanent. Travelers will now be able to make appointments for time slots to get a full-body massage at TSA checkpoints for all future flights, if they so desire.

Alaska Airlines announced that it has had more than 125,000 travelers use the program between when it started in early May and the end of August. The top four destinations for those who used the program were Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Diego… and Columbus. The first three make sense because of the high frequency and sheer number of passengers. Columbus, however, was probably successful because people mistakenly thought they were making a reservation for dinner at a Bob Evans.

Travelers going through security between 4am and 12pm — aka, “the busy time” — can now book appointments up to 72 hours before departure instead of just 24 hours out, getting assigned a 15 minute slot after providing their departure flight details. Those with TSA Precheck beware… this program does not combine with Precheck so you’ll have to take your shoes off like all the other riff-raff if you want to use it.

• American‘s head of the AAdvantage loyalty program is not feeling so loyal… he’s retiring from the airline.
• Ariana Afghan — probably the world’s most difficult airline to run — is hoping to restart international flights to Delhi later this month.
• Avianca says it’s possible its stock will be worthless when it comes out of bankruptcy. That’s generally how this works, so no surprises there.
• Azul will launch flights with its first Embraer E195-E2 in December between Campinas and Punta del Este in Uruguay.
• Cape Air 2702 ran off the runway and crashed into trees yesterday in Provincetown. There were no fatalities.
• Delta says that 20% of the unvaccinated employees at the company have now gotten the first jab in the two weeks since the airline announced it would heavily penalize those people who didn’t. This, of course, may be moot thanks to the new federal rules discussed above.
• Delta and LATAM have come to an agreement with Chile that will allow the airlines to move forward with their joint venture. It was Chile’s denial of the American/LATAM tie-up that led to the sinking of that agreement.
• Greater Bay — the new airline from Hong Kong — is likely to see its December start date slip now that Hong Kong has initiated a “private inquiry” into the airline.
• Gulf Air is going to start service to Tel Aviv on September 30, now that relations between Bahrain and Israel have been normalized.
• Japan Airlines is borrowing/issuing bonds for ~$2.7 billion to help it get through the pandemic.
• Jet Airways is facing all sorts of trouble in restarting, including having one of its 777s sold off. Odds of a relaunch are… decreasing.
• Nok Air is trying to reorganize and it’s not going well. Creditors are fighting over the right way forward, which we assume is to just shut the whole thing damn and stop burning money.

Why couldn’t the pasta get into his house?
Because he had gnocchi.

Airlines File a Blizzard of Downward Q3 Guidance Notices

Today saw a flood of airlines filing updates to their Q3 guidance, and just about none of them were positive. Allegiant, American, Delta, Frontier, JetBlue, Southwest, Sun Country, and United all filed 8-Ks with the SEC laying out the carnage. Here’s the rundown:

• Allegiant: Q3 revenue guidance lowered by 0.5 to 2.5% compared to 2019.
• American: Q3 revenue guidance lowered by 4 to 8 points with pre-tax ex-special items margin range lowered 7 points.
• Delta: Q3 revenue will be at the lower end of previous guidance down 30 to 35% compared to 2019 and the airline will pull down Q4 capacity an additional 3 to 5% over previous plan.
• Frontier: Q3 revenue guidance lowered 3 to 4 points compared to 2019 with adjusted net income margin lowered 6 points.
• JetBlue: Q3 revenue guidance at the lower end of previous expectations, now down 6 to 9% compared to 2019 with EBITDA also expected at the low end, between $75 – $125m.
• Southwest: Q3 revenue guidance at the lower end of previous expectations, now 18 to 20% compared to 2019 and it will now be “difficult” for the company to reach profit ex-special items.
• United: Q3 revenue will now be down 33% compared to 2019 and the airline now expects a pre-tax loss in both Q3 and Q4.

Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?

If there was any bright spot, it was Sun Country which kept its revenue forecast unchanged and decreased the expected cost of fuel. That means it expects its operating margin to come in at the higher end of forecasts, now between 7.0 to 9.5%.

United Continues to Be Strict on Vaccines with Exemption Policy

United Airlines has been the most strict when it comes to requiring employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19, and now it’s getting even more hardline. The airline has rolled out its plan for those with medical and religious exemptions. To sum it up, the plan is “stay home.”

Anyone can apply for medical or religious exemptions from the vaccine mandate, but if United denies it, that employee will have 5 weeks to get fully vaccinated or be terminated. Those with approved exemptions, however, will all be put on temporary leave starting on October 2.

Employees with medical exemptions will go on leave per the terms of their medical leave plans which may or may not be paid, but those on religious exemptions will be put on unpaid leave. Employees who aren’t in customer-facing positions will be allowed to come back to work when there is a masking and testing safety policy in place, whenever that may be. Those in customer-facing positions can’t come back until the pandemic is over. Either way, that’s a lot of time to not have a paycheck, so we imagine most of these people will just go find other jobs… which is likely the intent of the policy.

EasyJet Turns Down Wizz Air’s Overtures

Wizz Air is flush with cash and has been looking to expand throughout the pandemic. Its most recent effort, however, has hit a brick wall. The airline’s attempt to buy fellow low-cost operator easyJet has been turned down by that airline.

To the surprise of nobody, easyJet said that the suitor — which it refused to name but sources indicate is Wizz — undervalued its business. Just once we’d like to see a negotiation where the company being acquired says it’s being overvalued by the acquirer. Whether this means the negotiations are truly done or if this will just spark a feverish bidding war remains to be seen.

The two airlines together would be a powerhouse that would compete with Ryanair for dominance on the European continent. Instead, easyJet thinks its best plan is to put forward a rights issue worth $1.7 billion so it can continue to grow and take advantage of retrenching legacy airlines in the market. (That’s you, Alitalia.)

• Allegiant has painted an airplane to support the Raiders football team. To honor the Raiders, all passengers will be forced to dress up like members of the Black Hole and be prepared to fight. So, it’s just like any other Allegiant flight.
• British Airways has pulled its first A380 out of long-term storage.
• Emirates will go back into Saudi Arabia this month followed by St Petersburg next month.
• Frontier retired its last A319 yesterday with Erma the Ermine on the tail. An ermine, in case you were wondering, is a weasel. Frontier’s smallest airplane will now be the A320.
• ITA, the successor to Alitalia, is having problems with unions, legal issues, and so many other hiccups. In other words, it’s just another normal day for Alitalia.
• Spirit has agreed to take another 10 A321neos from lessor Air Lease Corporation. Presumably these airplanes will be used to run the future schedule Spirit wanted to run with fewer airplanes before it melted down completely.
• Qantas will require all passengers to be vaccinated when it restarts international operations later this year.
• United will purchase 1.5 billion gallons of sustainable fuel from Alder over the next 20 years.
• WestJet will require employees to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by October 30 or they will be fired or put on leave.

Why did Humpty Dumpty have a great fall?… To make up for his miserable summer.

Shock: Pre-Flight COVID Testing Reduces Number of People with COVID on Flights

Delta Air Lines along with the Georgia Department of Health and the Mayo Clinic have released a peer-reviewed study showing that when passengers all test within 72 hours before departure of a flight, the risk of someone getting on the airplane with COVID is lower than it would otherwise be. In other news, the sky is blue. We now wait for the announcement that Delta will open a chain of testing centers so it can increase profits from its ground-breaking discovery.

When the community infection rate was at 1.1%, there were only 0.05% of people infected in the sample. The data was collected on flights between Rome and both New York/JFK and Atlanta where nearly 10,000 passengers were required to test before flying. Of those, 4 tested positive and were not allowed to board the flight.

What this study doesn’t say, however, is whether finding 4 positive tests out of ten thousand offsets the annoying inconvenience of forcing everyone to wait in line at Walgreens just to get a test. The study also failed to note whether this somehow reduced the risk of actually catching COVID. As we know by now, the chances of becoming infected on an airplane are extraordinarily low, even when infected people are onboard.

Eurocontrol Shows Recovery Progress Varies Greatly By Country

Eurocontrol — the European air travel control organization — has released its August “snapshot” which looks at the number of flights operated by country compared to 2019. The results show that some countries have made a great deal more progress than others. On the whole, domestic flights within European countries have climbed to 70% of 2019 levels while international is at 55%. On the country level, however, the results swing wildly.

Spain, for example, has restored 96% of its domestic flights and 68% of international. We assume this is only because Ibiza is domestic, and that’s where all the cool kids are going to catch COVID party this summer. France is similar at 94% and 70% respectively, which is rather amusing since France has made a concerted effort to reduce the number of domestic flights so it can be green.

On the flip side, Germany has only 56% of domestic flights flying vs 2019 and 66% of international, again probably because of Ibiza. And besides, who wants to fly domestically within Germany anyway when you can take the train?

Norway shows what happens when you shut your borders to almost everyone. It had 94% of domestic flights operating with only 43% of international. And the United Kingdom shows what happens when you just don’t know what you’re doing. It had 68% of domestic and 46% of international flights operating.

Hawaiian Revises Q3 Outlook Significantly Downward

Hawaiian Airlines has joined the parade of carriers revising their 3rd quarter outlooks down due to weakened demand. The airline filed an 8-K with the SEC disclosing its downward trends, and thanks to a combination of the Delta variant and Hawaii’s governor telling people not to visit, things are looking notably worse than planned.

Hawaiian now expects total revenue to be down 34 to 37% instead of 28 to 33%. EBITDA is now expected to come in between -$20 million and -$40 million for the quarter. That range shifted $40 million for the worse.

In brighter news, the airline does expects costs to be down 13 to 15% vs previous estimates of 10 to 14%. The change is primarily due to Hawaiian having to buy significantly less POG juice.

• Air Canada Rouge is once again flying, so if you find your knees quaking in fear, now you know why.
• American is bringing live sports and news back on domestic narrowbody aircraft beginning tomorrow.
• American‘s pilots union is preparing to have its members picket to protest being overworked and not being given hotels properly.
• Austrian had the bright idea to actually sell tickets on winter charter flights instead of keeping them only as part of a package.
• British Airways flew one flight in the summer of 2021 without a slot, something we didn’t even know was possible. As punishment, BA has been fined £5,000. This sounds like JetBlue’s solution if it can’t get a permanent slot at the airport.
• Fly Jinnah is a new Pakistani low cost operator started in part by Air Arabia. It will launch next year.
• Hawaiian will bring back American Samoa service for the first time since the pandemic began, starting Monday.
• JetBlue has decided to give the permanent CFO job to its current “acting” CFO, Ursula Hurley.
• Porter realized that not flying airplanes was a pretty bad business model, so it has finally relaunched service today from Toronto/City airport.
• SAS has deferred the delivery of its last two Airbus A350-900s from 2022-2023 to 2023-2024.
• Singapore Air can breathe a sigh of relief as the Singaporean regulators have approved the 737 MAX to return to service.
• Southwest will let anyone who registers and flies two one-ways between Sep 9 and Nov 18 bring a companion for free between Jan 6 and Feb 28, probably because most flights will be empty anyway.
• Virgin Atlantic is extending elite status and voucher expirations by another six months.

Today is both National Ampersand Day & International Literacy Day. Celebrate by reading the WHOLE issue this time.

We will be taking a break from laboring on Labor Day. The next issue of Cranky Daily will be published on Tuesday, September 7.

Alaska’s Booking Trends Have “Deteriorated Moderately”

Issuing an investor update six weeks after it last predicted Q3 performance, Alaska says the rise in COVID cases has hurt travel demand, and it is revising expectations downward. Though the airline still expects to have pre-tax positive income, it will show weaker results across the board.

Q3 revenue passengers are now expected to be down 21 to 23% vs a previous plan of 15 to 18%. Load factor will also drop from between 82 and 85% to between 79 and 81%. Total revenue should be down 19 to 21% vs a previous expectation of being down 17 to 20%. To make matters worse, unit costs will come in at the high end of expenses, up between 11 and 12% vs the previous 10 to 12% metric.

Despite the short-term bearishness, Alaska is feeling good about the long run and will have 100% of 2019 capacity flying by next summer. In 2022, it will add net 41 new aircraft to the fleet with a mix of 737 MAX 9s and Embraer 175s in addition to a few Lockheed Electras it found when it was cleaning out the junk drawer in its Seattle headquarters.

The Netherlands Requires Quarantine for All US Arrivals

The Netherlands has become the second EU nation behind Bulgaria to follow the European Union’s guidance by requiring all US arrivals into the country to quarantine, regardless of vaccination status, reinstating COVID-restrictions that will all but remove travel to the Netherlands as an option for Americans.

The US has been re-classified by the Netherlands as a very-high risk country. Joining the US in this change is Israel, Kosovo, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. (South Macedonia, which is apparently better known as Greece, is not impacted.) Unvaccinated travelers from these countries will not be allowed to enter. Vaccinated travelers will be allowed, but they will have to quarantine for 10 days and, as of Monday, show a negative test result. The quarantine may be shortened with testing, but it will still be a non-starter for most travelers.

Last minute efforts by the US to get an exemption for short people appears to have failed. The remarkably tall Dutch are often socially distanced from others vertically, but that wasn’t enough to avoid the quarantine rules going into effect.

Alaska Outlines Rules for Unvaccinated Employees

Alaska has decided against requiring all employees be vaccinated, but it is doing its best to make it worthwhile for everyone to get the jab.

Similar to Delta, Alaska will now implement a testing protocol for its employees who are not vaccinated. It will also stop allowing unvaccinated employees to collect special COVID pay if they miss work due to exposure or infection. Further, Alaska will require that all new hires must be vaccinated. It is believed that Pfizer, J&J, and Moderna vaccines will qualify, but Maderna vaccines will not.

Where Alaska differs from Delta is in its financial impact. Delta will require unvaccinated employees under company health plans to pay an extra $200 per month, but Alaska will instead actually pay out $200 to each employee who shows proof of vaccination. Alaska will also require unvaccinated employees to attend a vaccine education program which sounds super boring and probably not effective if those employees can’t already figure out the value of having the shot.

Lufthansa Introduces Slightly Less Torture in Short-Haul Cabins

It’s a kinder, gentler Lufthansa Group these days, as evidenced by the fact that the group’s Brussels, Eurowings, Lufthansa, and SWISS subsidiaries are rolling out a new interior product on newly-deliveredd Airbus A320 family aircraft. This updated design will result in actual improvements, mostly because it couldn’t go in any other direction as compared to the current product.

The new Lufthansa Group cabin will include 40% larger overhead bins, Human-Centric Lighting (aka mood lighting but with a more ridiculous-sounding name), and “improved” seat comfort. We take that to mean the group will be replacing its current spiked metal benches with spikeless versions.

We’re not sure what will change, but at some point in the future, there will be more shoulder room in the cabin, so all you broad-shouldered folk can rejoice. Lastly, we understand the lavs are “even more usable for people with limited mobility” now that a person-sized shoehorn has been installed to wedge them in.

Aer Lingus UK Can Join the Immunity Party

Shortly after gaining approval to the fly to the US, Aer Lingus’s new UK-based subsidiary has been approved to join the joint venture over the Atlantic that includes Aer Lingus, American, British Airways, Finnair, and Iberia. The airline did not start off the spirit of cooperation well, misspelling Finnair as Finn Air in its filing. The Finns are not amused.

The venture allows the airlines to price and schedule jointly without fear of violating anti-trust laws. Aer Lingus’s new subsidiary will start by flying from Manchester to the US and Caribbean and, DOT says it will consider “Aer Lingus UK, as the entity exists today, to be an immunized affiliate.” It’s a good thing that Aer Lingus got the jab or it would be in trouble.

DOT does say it reserves the right to change its mind if Aer Lingus UK starts doing something different than what’s in the current plan, so be warned, Aer Lingus. DOT is watching.

• Aeronexus Corporate will finally be bringing service to the obviously underserved route of West Palm Beach to Maun in Botswana.
• Air New Zealand is still hoping to operate a skeleton schedule to Australia this fall, but Sydney is not one of the cities in the plan. Instead, service will focus on Perth, Adelaide, Hobart, Melbourne, Gold Coast, and Brisbane if it is able to operate at all.
• Etihad is getting excited now that vaccinated travelers will be allowed into its Abu Dhabi home without quarantine. This is in stark contrast with Wizz Air which is temporarily relocating its Abu Dhabi flights to Dubai.
• Hello Airlines will say hello to its first ATR72-300F freighter. It will then promptly say goodbye since the airplane will be operated under a different brand, NXT Air.
• Jet Airways is hoping to restart operations in the first quarter of next year even though it lacks the slots it needs at Delhi and Mumbai.
• Lufthansa looks closer to retiring the A380 for good as it prepares to send its last of the aircraft into long-term storage.
• Malaysia Airlines can breathe a sigh of relief now that Malaysian authorities have approved the 737 MAX for commercial service. Granted, it won’t take delivery until 2024, but it’s still nice to know.
• Ryanair is facing unhappy pilots at its East Midlands base, or at least an unhappy union which says the airline is slashing wages despite the return of demand.
• Southwest has rolled out a plan to help travelers achieve A List status this year by giving double qualifying points for those who sign up for the promotion.
• SWISS is back at London/City after a flight from Zurich operated by Helvetic arrived last night. This is the first commercial operation of the Embraer 190-E2 at the airport.

A 40% cut less than a week out? What are you, Frontier?

-An unnamed subscriber’s network planning joke about our cut from 5 to 3 stories per day starting Tuesday

United Follows Delta, Allows Basic Economy Changes Through Year-End

It feels like the good old days once again now that United has followed Delta in altering a policy. The airline quietly has opted to make Basic Economy tickets changeable for the rest of the year.

Like Delta, United will only allow changes to Basic Economy tickets purchased and scheduled for travel during 2021. After that, Basic Economy tickets will revert to being non-changeable, and spikes will be re-installed in the seatbacks of Basic Economy customers.

Delta said it initially made the move to allow Basic Economy changes as an attempt to help shorten phone hold times. United hasn’t had phone hold time issues, so we assume this is a competitive move.

American has not matched, and is unlikely to do so since it has put Basic Economy in very few markets this year. Spirit just laughed at the idea of waiving anything ever, and charged us $7.99 just for asking them such a silly question.

Avianca Goes for Growth in the Americas

Avianca has broken its quiet streak as it gets closer to emerging from bankruptcy protection by announcing 23 new international routes, including several to the US. The new routes are:

• Bogotá – Toronto
• Bucaramanga – Miami
• Cali – Cancun, New York/JFK, Mexico City, Quito, and San José (CR)
• Guatemala City – Washington/Dulles
• Guayaquil – Miami, New York/JFK
• Medellín – Aruba, Guayaquil, Mexico City, Orlando, Quito, and San José (CR)
• Quito – Miami, New York/JFK
• San José (CR) – Los Angeles, Managua, Mexico City, New York
• San Salvador – Orlando

In the press release, Avianca refers to Orlando as “the main tourist destination in the United States” which is both deeply depressing and probably true from the perspective of many in South America.

Avianca has had a tumultuous few years as it went bankrupt after infighting and poor decisions took over the previous management team. During bankruptcy it brought in a new CEO who was recently replaced as well. There’s nothing like stability to guide you through bankruptcy and a pandemic.

Canada and Blade to Require Air Travelers Be Vaccinated

Canadian Transport Minister Omar Alghabra announced that in the near future, all air travelers in Canada will have to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Though the same hasn’t been announced in the US, the first American airline — Blade — has said it will require it as well.

Alghabra said that x+2y=z with ‘x’ being a person, ‘y’ being the vaccine, and ‘z’ being your ability to get on an airplane and go fun places. An exact timeline was not given but Alghabra said it would be by the end of October at the latest. The mandate will also apply to long-haul train travel and cruising.

The US is not currently expected to follow with a similar mandate, but Blade has become the first US-based airline to require vaccinations for passengers from September 7. If you aren’t familiar with Blade, it’s because you’re not rich enough. Blade is best known for flying passengers between Manhattan and New York airports via helicopter, but it also has seaplanes and small jets going to rich people places like the Hamptons and Aspen.

Virgin Atlantic Brings Bad News Along with the Good

Virgin Atlantic announced with much fanfare that it would be entering the Edinburgh market from this December, but what it neglected to mention is that it is leaving the Glasgow market to make that happen.

It was just two days ago that Virgin Atlantic said it would start flying from Edinburgh to Barbados 2x-weekly from December 5. It will also begin Edinburgh to Orlando 2x-weekly next April. Today, it was revealed that the Orlando service will simply move over from Glasgow, where Virgin Atlantic was previously planning to fly 2x-weekly next summer.

The two biggest cities in Scotland, Edinburgh and Glasgow lie only an hour apart by train, so both cities will still be able to take advantage of the service. An Edinburgh resident, when asked, said he was be more likely to fly from Edinburgh because Glasgow is just not fancy enough for him. Meanwhile, a Glaswegian was asked about the move, and he simply shook his first and said something that was likely profane but incomprehensible to the American ear.

Drama Surrounds Oryx Jet and Icelandair

London-based Oryx Jet has demanded that Icelandair pay the airline £5mn for knocking one of its airplanes out of service for two months.

It was a presumably cold day in September 2017 at Iceland’s main Keflavik airport when an Icelandair Group employee damaged an Oryx Jet aircraft during loading of food and beverage. Icelandair says it was responsible, but that the damage was nothing close to approaching the amount demanded by Oryx Jet. Oryx Jet says it was really, really injured badly. The airline says it lost a contract to carry Saudi prize falcons (that is not a joke) and that they had to fly using their own wings instead (that is a joke).

Oryx Jet spokesperson Neymar was asked about the incident when he fell to the ground, saying that an Icelandair employee had pushed him and torn his ACL. Oryx Jet will now demand an additional £5mn from Icelandair for being mean and hurtful.

• Caribbean Airlines had an airplane land in Miami with nearly 15 pounds of cocaine in its belly. The airline pled innocent, saying it was just going to sell the cocaine to pay for landing fees.
• Embraer posted a profit for the first time in three years.
• Hageland Aviation Services, an Alaskan airline that hasn’t flown for a year, is on the block again.
• India has doubled the weekly cap on flights to the UK from 30 to 60 in order to increase supply and bring prices down. Who knew — besides everyone in the world — that there was robust demand between the UK and India.
• Iskwew Air — which means “Woman Air” in Cree, begins scheduled service from Vancouver to Qualicum on Vancouver Island Monday.
• Kenya Airways is getting trendy as it entered into a vague agreement to work with Embraer on an eVTOL air taxi service in the country.
• Mesa Air Group has delayed the launch of service for its European subsidiary into 2022.
• SAS named Louise Bergström as VP of Investor Relations, which has to be a very hard job considering how many times SAS has had to restructure.
• South African may still not be flying again, but it has airplanes. After heavy maintenance work post-storage, it now has two A320s ready to fly.
• Vistara has gone back to the well for another ~$100 million from its parents Tata Sons and Singapore Airlines. This is the fifth capital injection in 16 months… so everything is going great.
• Wizz Air will close its 3 aircraft base in Dortmund along with its 2 aircraft base in Riga in order to put the planes in other markets where they can make more money.

I decided to leave work an hour early today. The flight attendants started freaking out when I grabbed my parachute, though.